During his Tuesday, Dec. 2, cabinet meeting, President Donald Trump said “Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, as we have taken in literally trillions of dollars.” Adding, “We’re going to be giving a nice dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt.”
In early November, the president began floating the idea of issuing a $2,000 dividend to “middle income people and lower income people” from the “hundreds of millions of dollars” collected with promises of tariff rebate checks.
Last week, Trump also said the tariff revenue could eventually be “so great” that the government could cease levying income taxes, “I believe that at some point in the not too distant future, you won’t even have income tax to pay, because the money we’re taking in is so great, it’s so enormous, that you’re not going to have income tax to pay. Whether you get rid of it or just keep it around for fun or have it really low, much lower than it is now, but you won’t be paying income taxes.”
Trump said last month, “The tariffs allow us to give a dividend, if we want to do that. Now we’re going to do a dividend, and we’re also reducing debt we have because of Biden and others; we have $37 trillion in debt,” said Trump. “So we’re going to be doing a dividend, which people will enjoy and spend and do what they want. But we’re also going to be reducing debt very substantially.”
So what is the latest on $2,000 stimulus check 2025 status?
Budget experts and lawmakers aren’t sure though.
Erica York, a policy expert at the Tax Foundation, said in a post on X, “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. If kids qualify, that grows. Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far.”
As of Sept. 30, the federal government had generated $195 billion in tariff-related revenue, according to officials, which compared to the possible payout of the dividend check proposal would come up short.
Republican Sen. Ron Johnson also said in an interview with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo the country “can’t afford” Trump’s $2,000 dividend idea, “Look, we can’t afford it. I wish we were in a position to return the American public their money, but we’re not.”
“We’ll have at least a $2 trillion deficit this year,” Johnson warned, “That compares to prior to the pandemic. President Trump had deficits about $800 billion. Obama, in his last four years, $550 billion a year. Now we’re $2 trillion? Completely unacceptable. We have to start focusing on that and doing something about it.”
The Congressional Budget Office last month projected the federal deficit would hit $1.8 trillion for 2025, according to news reports.
However, officials note that in theory, Trump and his administration could potentially look to make the payout based on “anticipated” tariff revenue as the Treasury Department has forecast $3 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade.
Note that Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend payment is still being floated with no formal proposal and little details thus far.
Here’s when and what to know about Trump’s tariff dividend checks and who would be eligible for the $2000 stimulus check.
Are we getting a fourth stimulus check 2025?
Trump previously floated the idea of using part of the government revenue being generated by the new tariffs and returning it to taxpayers of a certain income level in the form of a rebate check, similar to the stimulus checks sent during the pandemic, back in July.
That tariff rebate check idea was then introduced in a bill by Sen. Josh Hawley, called the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025, that would send checks between $600 and $2,400 to American taxpayer families. However, it has not passed through Congress as of yet.
In February, Trump also said he would consider the plan to pay out $5,000 stimulus checks to taxpayers in the form of a “DOGE dividend” during a summit in Miami. He explained it as using part of the 20% of the savings identified by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and giving it back to taxpayers. However, he has not shared any further specifics or details about the possible “DOGE dividend” or its certainty since then.
There were three prior stimulus checks tied to COVID-era stimulus programs, the third and last of which had an April 15, 2025 deadline to claim. The opportunities to claim or file for the first stimulus payment (issued in March and April 2020) or the second stimulus check (issued by Jan. 15, 2021) or the third stimulus check (issued between March and December 2021) have now passed.
A rebate is a partial refund of the purchase price that a consumer paid, often upon meeting certain conditions, while a dividend by definition, is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders and refund is a payment made back to a user that previously paid for something.
A stimulus check, on the other hand, is a direct payment to encourage spending and stimulate the economy by putting money directly into the consumers’ hands.
While speculation about a fourth stimulus check has surfaced on social media and unverified websites, there has been no official confirmation from Congress or the IRS to support this claim and any such news should be taken with caution as it could be misinformation or attempted fraud.
When will the $2000 tariff dividend payment be paid?
Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend payment is still being floated with no formal proposal and little details thus far; however, he has made clear that the payments would not be issued before the holidays this year, but rather sometime in 2026, before the midterms.
In November, Trump vowed to issue dividend checks to “individuals of moderate income” sometime in 2026, before the midterm elections. Adding, “We’ve taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends later on. Somewhere prior to, you know, probably in the middle of next year, a little bit later than that. Of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.”
Who would be eligible for Trump’s $2000 tariff dividend?
Based on Trump’s recent comments about the $2,000 tariff dividend, the income qualifications would exclude “high income people.”
“We’re going to issue a dividend to our middle income people and lower income people of about $2,000,” Trump said on Nov. 10. “And we’re going to use the remaining tariffs to lower our debt.”
During two prior pandemic-era stimulus checks authorized by Trump, they were made available to individuals bringing in as much as $75,000 per year and couples earning up to $150,000 and higher earners were eligible for smaller payments.
What is considered middle class income in America?
The middle class is defined as those earning up to double the median household income, while high-income earners can make 10 times that — or more. Lower income is often defined as those making 150% of the federal poverty level or less.
Pew’s Research Center and the U.S. Census Bureau reports that the 2024 median household income was $83,730.
Using Pew’s definition of middle class as households that earn between two-thirds and double the median household income, the middle class consists of people making somewhere between $55,820 and $167,460 in 2024. Those earning less than $55,820 make up the lower-income bracket, while those earning more than the $167,460 make up the upper-income bracket.
However, income class can be directly impacted and influenced by family size and location as the median income can look very different in all 50 states depending on their cost of living.
States with the highest median household incomes exceeding $95,000 include Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New Hampshire and California, according to SmartAsset, while states with the lowest median household incomes below $60,000 were Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia and Mississippi.
Cities with the highest median income were Arlington, Virginia and San Jose, California where it exceeded $136,000 versus Cleveland, Ohio or Detroit, Michigan where it was less than $40,000.
You can find your income class via Pew Research Center’s income calculator or click here.
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.
