Treasury officials predicted record-breaking tax refunds months ago — and early data from the filing season suggests they may have been right.
According to figures released by the Internal Revenue Service, the average federal tax refund through the week ending February 13 stands at $2,476, roughly 14% higher than at the same point last year.
For the approximately 12.96 million taxpayers who have already received refunds, that increase represents a meaningful boost.
But there’s more to the story.
Fewer Refunds Issued — So Far
While average refund amounts are up, the total number of refunds issued so far is actually lower than last year.
At this point in the 2025 filing season, about 13.66 million refunds had already been sent — roughly 5% more than the current total. Meanwhile, the number of returns filed overall is running about 2.6% behind last year’s pace.
In short: individual refunds are larger, but fewer refunds have been processed so far.
Direct Deposit Refunds Are Even Higher
Taxpayers who opted for direct deposit — still the fastest and most common method — are seeing even slightly larger refunds.
The average refund via direct deposit is currently $2,548, marking a 13% year-over-year increase.
However, the IRS cautions against drawing conclusions too early in the filing season.
Why the Early Data Isn’t Complete Yet
The IRS has made clear that current refund figures do not yet fully account for returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC).
These credits often result in larger refunds. By law, the IRS cannot issue refunds related to these credits until mid-February, meaning updated figures released later in the season are expected to be higher.
The agency indicated that data released later in February should provide a clearer picture as those credit-related refunds are processed.
What’s Driving Larger Refunds?
Several tax code changes enacted in 2025 are now influencing refund amounts.
Legislation signed last July included:
-
An increase in the child tax credit
-
A higher standard deduction
-
Elimination of federal taxes on tips
-
Elimination of federal taxes on certain overtime income
These changes may have reduced overall tax liability for many households, particularly workers in service industries or those earning significant overtime pay.
When tax withholdings exceed final liability, the difference is returned as a refund — which may explain the higher averages seen so far this season.
Treasury officials previously projected that some households could see refund increases ranging from $1,000 to $2,000, depending on income and filing status.
Total Refund Volume Could Reach $90 Billion+
Some analysts estimate total federal refund payouts could approach $90 billion this season, alongside tens of billions in reduced tax withholdings already reflected in workers’ paychecks during 2025.
Whether those projections hold will depend on how the remainder of the filing season unfolds.
Historically, early-season statistics can shift significantly as more taxpayers file closer to the April 15 deadline.
How to Track Your Refund
For taxpayers wondering about their status, the IRS offers a free tool:
“Where’s My Refund?”
Available through:
-
The IRS website
-
The IRS2Go mobile app
To check status, taxpayers need:
-
Social Security number
-
Filing status
-
Exact refund amount claimed
The system updates once daily, typically overnight.
Refund status will move through three stages:
-
Return Received
-
Refund Approved
-
Refund Sent
How Long Does It Take?
-
Electronic filing with direct deposit: Usually within 21 days
-
Paper returns: Typically 4–8 weeks
-
Returns requiring manual review may take longer
While the IRS phone line remains available, online tools are generally faster and more efficient for status updates.
Bottom Line
Early data suggests that tax refunds in 2026 are averaging higher than last year, potentially reflecting recent changes to the tax code. However, the filing season is still unfolding, and final totals may shift as more returns — particularly those claiming tax credits — are processed.
For now, many taxpayers are seeing larger refunds, even if fewer checks have been issued so far.
