The annual cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) is projected to be 3.5% in 2027, down 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast of 3.6%, according to The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).
This is TSCL’s final forecast before the Social Security Administration announces the official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of September inflation data. Recipients will receive their personalized notices detailing their new benefit amounts in December.
This forecast is also in line with projections from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. Johnson told CNBC that the Social Security COLA for 2027 could be 3.5%, though the final figure could change due to volatile oil prices.
“The biggest thing we’re watching with the COLA announcement coming are short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days,” TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said in a statement. “Of the three CPI-W figures used to calculate the COLA, two are already in.”
What this could mean for your Social Security check
If TSCL’s projections are correct, a 3.5% COLA would boost the average retiree’s monthly check by $67.90, from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98.
COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-Ws are calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The point of these adjustments is to ensure that Social Security benefits keep up with inflation.
This forecast comes after the release of August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase in consumer prices. Gas prices spiked 3.9% last month amid the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, and “core” inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month over month.
If TSCL’s projection holds, it would mark the largest COLA increase in four years. Still — experts say it could be a letdown for seniors.
“No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” said Benton. “The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget.”
How to calculate your COLA
A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. If there is an increase, it must be rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or if the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA for the year.
You can find out exactly how much your benefits will increase by creating an account on SSA.gov. After verifying your account, you’ll be able to get an estimate of your retirement benefits and see how those benefits may change depending on your retirement age.
You can also crunch the numbers yourself and calculate your new Social Security benefit by multiplying the percentage increase by your current monthly benefit amount.
Say you’re receiving $2,071, which is around the current average monthly benefit for retirees according to the SSA. When multiplied by the estimated COLA of 3.5% or 0.035%, you can expect a monthly benefit of about $2,143.48 — about a $72 increase.
