If Congress doesn’t take action on Social Security’s budget shortfall, the trust funds will be exhausted in 2032, and benefits for more than 70 million recipients will have to be cut by 22%. This will have a huge impact on the estimated 20 million people with no other source of income. Yet Congress appears stuck, unable to agree on how to proceed, with no serious prospect of a breakthrough.
So what if, instead of only talking to their fellow Congress members about how to solve the problem, they consulted the American people?
We, at the Program for Public Consultation (PPC), have been doing just that for years through surveys that ask Americans to address the Social Security shortfall. We present them with a range of possible reforms and explain how each would affect the budget shortfall. Most recently, we conducted this survey with nearly 20,000 Americans in 39 battleground states and districts as well as nationally.
What we have consistently found is that majorities of both Republicans and Democrats support proposals to address the shortfall. And these proposals are not out-of-the-box ideas, but are drawn from real proposals in congressional legislation and from the Social Security Administration.
Americans overwhelmingly support taxing high earners’ wages
Currently, Social Security’s payroll tax stops applying once wages exceed $185,000 this year. One idea is to give people a break for the next $215,000 and then apply the payroll tax to annual income over $400,000. This would reduce the shortfall by 61%. This idea receives massive bipartisan support.
Support for subjecting wages over $400,000 to the payroll tax:
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Nationally – 83% of Democrats; 77% of Republicans.
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Competitive states and districts – 73-89% of Democrats; 66-84% of Republicans.
Americans back a modest, phased-in increase in the payroll tax rate
Beyond taxing higher wages, majorities also back a modest increase in the payroll tax rate itself, phased in gradually rather than all at once. The proposal tested would gradually raise the Social Security payroll tax rate from 6.2% to 6.5%, which would reduce the shortfall by 15%.
Support for gradually increasing the payroll tax rate from 6.2% to 6.5%:
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Nationally – 66% of Democrats; 61% of Republicans.
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Competitive states and districts – 55-81% of Democrats; 46-74% of Republicans.
Americans support trimming benefits for the wealthiest retirees
On the spending side, respondents favor reductions targeted at people with the highest lifetime earnings. The proposal tested would reduce future Social Security benefits for the top 20% of lifetime earners, while leaving benefits for the remaining 80% of retirees unchanged.
Support for reducing benefits for the top 20% of lifetime earners, which would reduce the shortfall by 11%:
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Nationally – 69% of Democrats; 62% of Republicans.
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Competitive states and districts – 50-79% of Democrats; 53-74% of Republicans.
Americans back a gradual, one-year increase in the retirement age
The proposal that gets the least support is to gradually increase the full retirement age from 67 to 68 by 2033. But while this proposal does not have bipartisan majority support in every battleground state and district, it does in most of them – 26 out of the 39 surveyed – as well as nationally.
Support for gradually raising the full retirement age from 67 to 68 by 2033, which would reduce the shortfall by 15%:
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Nationally – 55% of Democrats; 58% of Republicans.
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Competitive states and districts – 39-71% of Democrats; 46-72% of Republicans.
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They also support a benefit increase for the lowest-income earners
While Americans want to solve the Social Security shortfall, they also favor increasing support for retirees with the lowest lifetime incomes.
Support for raising the minimum monthly benefit from the current $1,125 a month to $1,630 per month, which would increase the budget shortfall by 8%:
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Nationally – 81% of Democrats; 76% of Republicans.
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Competitive states and districts – 72-84% of Democrats; 68-83% of Republicans.
Americans don’t oppose changing Social Security. They oppose a crisis
Combined, these proposals would almost entirely eliminate the budget shortfall and preserve full Social Security benefits for tens of millions of retirees for decades.
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For years, members of Congress have been saying that the problem of the Social Security shortfall is a “third rail” and that anyone who tries to solve it will be politically fried. Leaders of parties on both sides “politely” wait for the other to take the lead.
But it appears that the American people are already taking the lead. The question is whether their representatives in Congress will follow.
Steven Kull is director of the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation (PPC), a nonpartisan research center affiliated with the School of Public Policy. Evan Charles Lewitus is a social science researcher and associate director of the PPC.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: As Congress balks on Social Security, Americans know better | Opinion
